Penrose documentation

Penrose is an independent falsification referee for quantitative trading claims. It reconstructs a claim, tests the evidence under realistic statistical and operational constraints, and returns a calibrated verdict. It is not a trading system, signal service, or promise of profitability.

This directory is the public-facing documentation source. It is intentionally separate from docs/, which contains research papers, engineering standards, and internal design material. The same Markdown can be rendered as a GitBook-style website or loaded inside the Penrose dashboard.

Interpretation contract

A Penrose verdict describes how well a claim survived falsification. It never means “buy,” “sell,” “profitable,” or “safe to trade.” Promotion at P9 always requires a human.

Start here

• What Penrose is
• Quickstart
• Submit your first claim
• Understand verdicts
• Tour the dashboard

The system in one minute

source or structured claim
        ↓
P1–P3  ingest, ground, and check falsifiability
        ↓
P4–P6  screen, bind data, and reconstruct faithfully
        ↓
P7     deflation, power, robustness, costs, and confirmation controls
        ↓
P8     calibrated verdict or honest routing state
        ↓
P9     human-only review and promotion

Penrose records the complete search behind a result. A strategy selected from 500 attempts must pay for all 500 attempts; it cannot present itself as a lucky singleton. This search-aware accounting is the central distinction between Penrose and an ordinary backtester.

What to trust

Penrose separates three kinds of state:

1. The scientific record — append-only decisions, receipts, audit logs, trial accounting, source archives, and holdout burns.
2. The active corpus — evidence eligible to inform the current learning epoch.
3. Derived views — dashboard JSON, reports, graphs, connections, and queues that can be rebuilt.

The first is preserved. The second is epoch-scoped. The third is disposable and reproducible.

Documentation map

The complete navigation lives in SUMMARY.md. For application embedding, the equivalent machine-readable navigation is in navigation.json.

Version and status

Penrose is a 0.x research prototype. Interfaces may evolve, data coverage is incomplete, and reconstruction fidelity remains a central scientific risk. The public documentation should always be published from the same commit as the running engine and display that engine version visibly.